PPRP IS THE SUNSCREEN YOUR BUYERS NEED RIGHT NOW!
SHORT TERM TREND (20 days or less) Favors higher rates and lower prices.
SUGGESTED PIPELINE STRATEGY: Maintain
a "lock 'em if you've got 'em" pipeline risk management strategy
until/unless the Fannie Mae 6.0% 30-year mortgage-backed security can
muster the momentum to close above a price of 98.687.
Since
last week Friday I've suggested a downward breach of the 98.583 price
level by the Fannie Mae 6.0% 30-year fixed rate mortgage-backed
security would leave the security very vulnerable to a slide all the
way down to the 98.031 to 97.593 neighborhood before buyers might
reasonably be expected to show up in force again.
On
Wednesday sellers pushed the price of the Fannie Mae 6.0% 30-year
mortgage-backed security all the way down to 97.843 before buyers
showed up in droves to drag the price back up to 98.281. While this price action is encouraging -- one or two days of mortgage market friendly price action does not make a trend. I
look for sellers to take at least one more stab at pushing the Fannie
Mae 6.0% 30-year mortgage-backed security down and through 97.843 (a
value exactly equal to last year's low). If
buyers once again stage a solid buying spree as we approach the 97.843
price level I think it is highly likely that the worst of the run-up in
mortgage interest rates this year will be behind us.
I
expect a bottom (in terms of price, a high in terms of interest rates)
to most likely be fully defined somewhere within a +/- three days range
of June 21st. (Cycle projections were first posted on Wednesday, June 6th.)
Do
not front-run this forecast - wait for an upward breach of the 98.687
price level before initiating any new "floating" loan positions.
LONG-TERM TREND (21 days or more) Favors higher rates and lower prices
SUGGESTED PIPELINE STRATEGY:
Maintain a "lock 'em if you've got 'em" pipeline risk management
strategy until/unless the Fannie Mae 6.0% 30-year mortgage-backed
security can muster the momentum to close above a price of 100.281.
Commentary: The May Consumer Price Index rose a stronger than expected 0.7% as energy once again provided the majority of the upward lift. The core rate (a value excluding the more volatile food and energy components) posted a softer-than-expected gain of 0.2%. Core
consumer prices are up 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate during
the first five months of the year - compared with a 2.6% rise for all
of last year. Today's modest gain in core
inflation at the consumer level is likely providing a bit of relief for
Federal Reserve policymakers and investors alike.
I continue to strongly recommend that you stay in your foxholes with your helmets on and your heads down. Stay
safely on the sidelines with respect to your pipeline risk positions
until the probabilities of meaningful upside marketing gains swing back
into your favor - as it surely will. Be patient, be disciplined and play it by the numbers.
THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT! YOU AND I ARE SOME OF THE TIME
If you require further clarification of today's market commentary don't hesitate to call us at...
972-612-2076 or 1-800-382-3865
Larry
Baer is a mortgage rate expert and if you read what he is saying, you
will agree that our 90 day pre-purchase, rate protection (PPRP) is the
best advice to give anyone walking in your door right now. Get them
locked in at the initial meeting AND for your buyers pre-qualified with
'their own lenders' that you are working with, ask them to call us too
to protect them and YOUR COMMISSION!
OVER THE LAST 6 WKS, A TYPICAL $100K LOAN WENT UP $40/MO! DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO YOUR NEXT BUYERS!